NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
FOKUS#48 in the world · win 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Iberian Soul#57 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
47%53%
FOKUS · 11 mapsedge Iberian Soul +6%Iberian Soul · 11 maps
NukeFOKUS ban
47%67%
FOKUS · 11 mapsedge Iberian Soul +20%Iberian Soul · 5 maps
CacheFOKUS pick
77%30%
FOKUS · 9 mapsedge FOKUS +47%Iberian Soul · 6 maps
InfernoIberian Soul pick
38%62%
FOKUS · 4 mapsedge Iberian Soul +24%Iberian Soul · 9 maps
MirageIberian Soul ban
45%50%
FOKUS · 7 mapsedge Iberian Soul +5%Iberian Soul · 6 maps
Dust2Iberian Soul ban
47%50%
FOKUS · 11 mapsnearly even -3%Iberian Soul · 0 maps
AnubisFOKUS ban
57%67%
FOKUS · 3 mapsedge Iberian Soul +10%Iberian Soul · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFOKUS remove Anubis
2. BanIberian Soul remove Dust2
3. PickFOKUS take Cache
4. PickIberian Soul take Inferno
5. BanIberian Soul remove Mirage
6. BanFOKUS remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (47% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:11
FOKUS 37%Iberian Soul 63%
The model gave 63% on Iberian Soul — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Cacheprediction correct13:7
FOKUS 90%Iberian Soul 10%
The model gave 90% on FOKUS — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Model check result
Model favoriteFOKUS · 54%
Series resultFOKUS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2