NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
BET-M#62 in the world · win 2:1series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SINNERS#45 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2SINNERS pick
44%65%
BET-M · 14 mapsedge SINNERS +21%SINNERS · 19 maps
AncientBET-M ban
33%58%
BET-M · 14 mapsedge SINNERS +25%SINNERS · 15 maps
Miragepossible decider
56%53%
BET-M · 12 mapsnearly even +3%SINNERS · 15 maps
InfernoBET-M pick
67%40%
BET-M · 14 mapsedge BET-M +27%SINNERS · 11 maps
NukeSINNERS ban
53%50%
BET-M · 15 mapsnearly even +3%SINNERS · 6 maps
CacheBET-M ban
50%42%
BET-M · 0 mapsedge BET-M +8%SINNERS · 15 maps
AnubisSINNERS ban
55%50%
BET-M · 7 mapsedge BET-M +5%SINNERS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBET-M remove Cache
2. BanSINNERS remove Anubis
3. PickBET-M take Inferno
4. PickSINNERS take Dust2
5. BanSINNERS remove Nuke
6. BanBET-M remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (56% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:8
BET-M 56%SINNERS 44%
The model gave 56% on BET-M — the map was taken by BET-M.
Mirageprediction missed11:13
BET-M 51%SINNERS 49%
The model gave 51% on BET-M — the map was taken by SINNERS.
Dust2prediction missed13:4
BET-M 30%SINNERS 70%
The model gave 70% on SINNERS — the map was taken by BET-M.
Model check result
Model favoriteSINNERS · 58%
Series resultBET-M 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3