Gamebox Festival 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
STATE#142 in the world · win 2:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MASONIC#204 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientSTATE pick
60%50%
STATE · 1 mapedge STATE +10%MASONIC · 0 maps
InfernoSTATE ban
40%50%
STATE · 1 mapedge MASONIC +10%MASONIC · 0 maps
NukeMASONIC ban
60%50%
STATE · 1 mapedge STATE +10%MASONIC · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSTATE remove Inferno
2. BanMASONIC remove Nuke
3. PickSTATE take Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed5:13
STATE 57%MASONIC 43%
The model gave 57% on STATE — the map was taken by MASONIC.
Overpassprediction correct13:3
STATE 53%MASONIC 47%
The model gave 53% on STATE — the map was taken by STATE.
Nukeprediction correct13:7
STATE 60%MASONIC 40%
The model gave 60% on STATE — the map was taken by STATE.
Model check result
Model favoriteSTATE · 55%
Series resultSTATE 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3