ESL Challenger League Season 51 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
RUSTEC#124 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Phantom#59 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2RUSTEC ban
50%50%
RUSTEC · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Phantom · 0 maps
InfernoPhantom ban
67%50%
RUSTEC · 2 mapsedge RUSTEC +17%Phantom · 0 maps
MirageRUSTEC pick
60%50%
RUSTEC · 1 mapedge RUSTEC +10%Phantom · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRUSTEC remove Dust2
2. BanPhantom remove Inferno
3. PickRUSTEC take Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed3:13
RUSTEC 53%Phantom 47%
The model gave 53% on RUSTEC — the map was taken by Phantom.
Mirageprediction missed11:13
RUSTEC 57%Phantom 43%
The model gave 57% on RUSTEC — the map was taken by Phantom.
Model check result
Model favoritePhantom · 54%
Series resultPhantom 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2