Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Misa#115 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Falcons Force#152 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Misa pick
53%27%
Misa · 26 mapsedge Misa +26%Falcons Force · 7 maps
MirageFalcons Force pick
43%55%
Misa · 17 mapsedge Falcons Force +12%Falcons Force · 7 maps
NukeFalcons Force ban
50%22%
Misa · 12 mapsedge Misa +28%Falcons Force · 5 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%40%
Misa · 12 mapsedge Misa +10%Falcons Force · 1 map
InfernoFalcons Force ban
54%57%
Misa · 9 mapsnearly even -3%Falcons Force · 3 maps
AncientMisa ban
50%36%
Misa · 0 mapsedge Misa +14%Falcons Force · 7 maps
CacheMisa ban
44%60%
Misa · 5 mapsedge Falcons Force +16%Falcons Force · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMisa remove Ancient
2. BanFalcons Force remove Nuke
3. PickMisa take Dust2
4. PickFalcons Force take Mirage
5. BanFalcons Force remove Inferno
6. BanMisa remove Cache
DeciderAnubis (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct7:13
Misa 38%Falcons Force 62%
The model gave 62% on Falcons Force — the map was taken by Falcons Force.
Mirageprediction correct9:13
Misa 36%Falcons Force 64%
The model gave 64% on Falcons Force — the map was taken by Falcons Force.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons Force · 51%
Series resultFalcons Force 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2