NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
Phantom#87 in the world · win 2:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Vexar#141 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientVexar pick
50%46%
Phantom · 12 mapsnearly even +4%Vexar · 9 maps
Dust2Phantom pick
56%57%
Phantom · 14 mapsnearly even -1%Vexar · 3 maps
MirageVexar ban
38%38%
Phantom · 12 mapsnearly even +0%Vexar · 4 maps
Nukepossible decider
53%60%
Phantom · 13 mapsedge Vexar +7%Vexar · 1 map
OverpassVexar ban
67%50%
Phantom · 8 mapsedge Phantom +17%Vexar · 0 maps
DefaultPhantom ban
50%60%
Phantom · 0 mapsedge Vexar +10%Vexar · 6 maps
InfernoPhantom ban
60%50%
Phantom · 1 mapedge Phantom +10%Vexar · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPhantom remove Inferno
2. BanVexar remove Overpass
3. PickPhantom take Dust2
4. PickVexar take Ancient
5. BanVexar remove Mirage
6. BanPhantom remove Default
DeciderNuke (53% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
Phantom 51%Vexar 49%
The model gave 51% on Phantom — the map was taken by Phantom.
Nukeprediction missed13:8
Phantom 46%Vexar 54%
The model gave 54% on Vexar — the map was taken by Phantom.
Model check result
Model favoritePhantom · 79%
Series resultPhantom 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2