Urban Riga Open Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
BRUTE#74 in the world · win 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
67%50%
BRUTE · 14 mapsedge BRUTE +17%MOUZ NXT · 8 maps
MirageMOUZ NXT ban
50%27%
BRUTE · 8 mapsedge BRUTE +23%MOUZ NXT · 11 maps
NukeBRUTE ban
57%60%
BRUTE · 10 mapsnearly even -3%MOUZ NXT · 6 maps
OverpassBRUTE pick
70%29%
BRUTE · 6 mapsedge BRUTE +41%MOUZ NXT · 3 maps
InfernoMOUZ NXT ban
64%50%
BRUTE · 7 mapsedge BRUTE +14%MOUZ NXT · 0 maps
CacheMOUZ NXT pick
25%67%
BRUTE · 4 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +42%MOUZ NXT · 2 maps
AncientBRUTE ban
50%57%
BRUTE · 0 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +7%MOUZ NXT · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBRUTE remove Ancient
2. BanMOUZ NXT remove Inferno
3. PickBRUTE take Overpass
4. PickMOUZ NXT take Cache
5. BanMOUZ NXT remove Mirage
6. BanBRUTE remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (67% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:10
BRUTE 44%MOUZ NXT 56%
The model gave 56% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by BRUTE.
Dust2prediction correct13:9
BRUTE 69%MOUZ NXT 31%
The model gave 69% on BRUTE — the map was taken by BRUTE.
Model check result
Model favoriteBRUTE · 64%
Series resultBRUTE 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2