Urban Riga Open Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
PURE#126 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
ASTRAL#97 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientASTRAL pick
67%64%
PURE · 2 mapsnearly even +3%ASTRAL · 24 maps
MiragePURE pick
55%50%
PURE · 7 mapsedge PURE +5%ASTRAL · 12 maps
NukeASTRAL ban
56%38%
PURE · 5 mapsedge PURE +18%ASTRAL · 12 maps
Dust2PURE ban
43%53%
PURE · 3 mapsedge ASTRAL +10%ASTRAL · 13 maps
InfernoASTRAL ban
29%40%
PURE · 3 mapsedge ASTRAL +11%ASTRAL · 11 maps
AnubisPURE ban
29%62%
PURE · 3 mapsedge ASTRAL +33%ASTRAL · 9 maps
Cachepossible decider
40%50%
PURE · 1 mapedge ASTRAL +10%ASTRAL · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPURE remove Anubis
2. BanASTRAL remove Nuke
3. PickPURE take Mirage
4. PickASTRAL take Ancient
5. BanASTRAL remove Inferno
6. BanPURE remove Dust2
DeciderCache (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct1:13
PURE 50%ASTRAL 50%
The model gave 50% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Mirageprediction missed6:13
PURE 58%ASTRAL 42%
The model gave 58% on PURE — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Model check result
Model favoritePURE · 54%
Series resultASTRAL 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2