WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 6 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageK28 pick
60%56%
K28 · 1 mapnearly even +4%Lavked · 35 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%38%
K28 · 2 mapsedge K28 +12%Lavked · 22 maps
NukeK28 ban
50%58%
K28 · 0 mapsedge Lavked +8%Lavked · 20 maps
AncientLavked pick
40%73%
K28 · 1 mapedge Lavked +33%Lavked · 11 maps
AnubisK28 ban
50%60%
K28 · 0 mapsedge Lavked +10%Lavked · 11 maps
InfernoLavked ban
50%25%
K28 · 0 mapsedge K28 +25%Lavked · 8 maps
OverpassLavked ban
50%50%
K28 · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Lavked · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanK28 remove Anubis
2. BanLavked remove Inferno
3. PickK28 take Mirage
4. PickLavked take Ancient
5. BanLavked remove Overpass
6. BanK28 remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (50% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed8:13
K28 64%Lavked 36%
The model gave 64% on K28 — the map was taken by Lavked.
Mirageprediction correct16:14
K28 51%Lavked 49%
The model gave 51% on K28 — the map was taken by K28.
Anubisprediction missed13:6
K28 40%Lavked 60%
The model gave 60% on Lavked — the map was taken by K28.
Model check result
Model favoriteLavked · 67%
Series resultK28 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3