NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
Butterfly#127 in the world · win 2:0series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:0
G2 Ares#103 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageG2 Ares pick
57%67%
Butterfly · 3 mapsedge G2 Ares +10%G2 Ares · 17 maps
InfernoButterfly ban
33%58%
Butterfly · 2 mapsedge G2 Ares +25%G2 Ares · 15 maps
Dust2possible decider
60%56%
Butterfly · 1 mapnearly even +4%G2 Ares · 14 maps
AncientG2 Ares ban
67%47%
Butterfly · 2 mapsedge Butterfly +20%G2 Ares · 11 maps
OverpassButterfly pick
50%43%
Butterfly · 0 mapsedge Butterfly +7%G2 Ares · 10 maps
AnubisButterfly ban
40%50%
Butterfly · 1 mapedge G2 Ares +10%G2 Ares · 4 maps
CacheG2 Ares ban
60%50%
Butterfly · 1 mapedge Butterfly +10%G2 Ares · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanButterfly remove Anubis
2. BanG2 Ares remove Ancient
3. PickButterfly take Overpass
4. PickG2 Ares take Mirage
5. BanG2 Ares remove Cache
6. BanButterfly remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (60% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:5
Butterfly 37%G2 Ares 63%
The model gave 63% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Ancientprediction correct13:4
Butterfly 72%G2 Ares 28%
The model gave 72% on Butterfly — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 Ares · 67%
Series resultButterfly 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2