ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Noir Verse#148 in the world · loss 0:1series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Vexar#123 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNoir Verse ban
50%50%
Noir Verse · 10 mapsnearly even +0%Vexar · 16 maps
NukeVexar ban
50%36%
Noir Verse · 12 mapsedge Noir Verse +14%Vexar · 10 maps
MirageNoir Verse pick
63%62%
Noir Verse · 12 mapsnearly even +1%Vexar · 9 maps
Dust2Vexar pick
47%50%
Noir Verse · 13 mapsnearly even -3%Vexar · 4 maps
AnubisNoir Verse ban
43%33%
Noir Verse · 10 mapsedge Noir Verse +10%Vexar · 5 maps
Defaultpossible decider
40%38%
Noir Verse · 6 mapsnearly even +2%Vexar · 4 maps
CacheVexar ban
54%50%
Noir Verse · 9 mapsnearly even +4%Vexar · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNoir Verse remove Ancient
2. BanVexar remove Cache
3. PickNoir Verse take Mirage
4. PickVexar take Dust2
5. BanVexar remove Nuke
6. BanNoir Verse remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (40% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
Noir Verse 53%Vexar 47%
The model gave 53% on Noir Verse — the map was taken by Vexar.
Model check result
Model favoriteVexar · 54%
Series resultVexar 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1