Urban Riga Open Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Noir Verse#124 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMOUZ NXT ban
56%27%
Noir Verse · 5 mapsedge Noir Verse +29%MOUZ NXT · 11 maps
Dust2Noir Verse ban
38%50%
Noir Verse · 4 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +12%MOUZ NXT · 8 maps
NukeNoir Verse pick
60%56%
Noir Verse · 6 mapsnearly even +4%MOUZ NXT · 5 maps
AncientNoir Verse ban
38%57%
Noir Verse · 4 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +19%MOUZ NXT · 3 maps
CacheMOUZ NXT pick
33%67%
Noir Verse · 2 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +34%MOUZ NXT · 2 maps
Overpasspossible decider
40%29%
Noir Verse · 1 mapedge Noir Verse +11%MOUZ NXT · 3 maps
AnubisMOUZ NXT ban
67%40%
Noir Verse · 2 mapsedge Noir Verse +27%MOUZ NXT · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNoir Verse remove Dust2
2. BanMOUZ NXT remove Anubis
3. PickNoir Verse take Nuke
4. PickMOUZ NXT take Cache
5. BanMOUZ NXT remove Mirage
6. BanNoir Verse remove Ancient
DeciderOverpass (40% / 29%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed9:13
Noir Verse 77%MOUZ NXT 23%
The model gave 77% on Noir Verse — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Nukeprediction missed6:13
Noir Verse 52%MOUZ NXT 48%
The model gave 52% on Noir Verse — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ NXT · 50%
Series resultMOUZ NXT 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2