Urban Riga Open Season 6 · BO1
result vs prediction
BRUTE#74 in the world · win 13:11series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 13:11
LEO SEloss 11:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2LEO SE ban
67%50%
BRUTE · 14 mapsedge BRUTE +17%LEO SE · 0 maps
MirageBRUTE ban
50%43%
BRUTE · 8 mapsedge BRUTE +7%LEO SE · 3 maps
NukeLEO SE ban
54%40%
BRUTE · 9 mapsedge BRUTE +14%LEO SE · 1 map
Infernopossible decider
58%40%
BRUTE · 8 mapsedge BRUTE +18%LEO SE · 1 map
OverpassLEO SE ban
70%50%
BRUTE · 6 mapsedge BRUTE +20%LEO SE · 0 maps
CacheBRUTE ban
25%50%
BRUTE · 4 mapsedge LEO SE +25%LEO SE · 0 maps
AnubisBRUTE ban
33%40%
BRUTE · 2 mapsedge LEO SE +7%LEO SE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBRUTE remove Anubis
2. BanLEO SE remove Dust2
3. BanBRUTE remove Cache
4. BanLEO SE remove Nuke
5. BanBRUTE remove Mirage
6. BanLEO SE remove Overpass
DeciderInferno (58% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:11
BRUTE 64%LEO SE 36%
The model gave 64% on BRUTE — the map was taken by BRUTE.
Model check result
Model favoriteBRUTE · 63%
Series resultBRUTE 13:11
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1