Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Honvéd#144 in the world · win 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Noir Verse#124 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Honvéd pick
55%45%
Honvéd · 25 mapsedge Honvéd +10%Noir Verse · 7 maps
MirageNoir Verse pick
50%60%
Honvéd · 22 mapsedge Noir Verse +10%Noir Verse · 6 maps
AncientHonvéd ban
50%42%
Honvéd · 12 mapsedge Honvéd +8%Noir Verse · 8 maps
NukeHonvéd ban
56%50%
Honvéd · 5 mapsedge Honvéd +6%Noir Verse · 8 maps
AnubisNoir Verse ban
50%40%
Honvéd · 4 mapsedge Honvéd +10%Noir Verse · 6 maps
Defaultpossible decider
67%50%
Honvéd · 5 mapsedge Honvéd +17%Noir Verse · 4 maps
InfernoNoir Verse ban
36%40%
Honvéd · 7 mapsnearly even -4%Noir Verse · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHonvéd remove Nuke
2. BanNoir Verse remove Inferno
3. PickHonvéd take Dust2
4. PickNoir Verse take Mirage
5. BanNoir Verse remove Anubis
6. BanHonvéd remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (67% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
Honvéd 62%Noir Verse 38%
The model gave 62% on Honvéd — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Cacheprediction missed13:8
Honvéd 47%Noir Verse 53%
The model gave 53% on Noir Verse — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoir Verse · 50%
Series resultHonvéd 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2