ESEA Intermediate Season 58 Oceania · BO3
result vs prediction
Arcade#159 in the world · win 2:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Staquedloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageStaqued ban
45%40%
Arcade · 7 mapsedge Arcade +5%Staqued · 1 map
InfernoArcade pick
67%50%
Arcade · 5 mapsedge Arcade +17%Staqued · 2 maps
NukeStaqued ban
36%50%
Arcade · 7 mapsedge Staqued +14%Staqued · 0 maps
Dust2Arcade ban
33%40%
Arcade · 5 mapsedge Staqued +7%Staqued · 1 map
CacheStaqued pick
57%40%
Arcade · 3 mapsedge Arcade +17%Staqued · 1 map
AncientArcade ban
40%33%
Arcade · 1 mapedge Arcade +7%Staqued · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanArcade remove Ancient
2. BanStaqued remove Nuke
3. PickArcade take Inferno
4. PickStaqued take Cache
5. BanStaqued remove Mirage
6. BanArcade remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed6:13
Arcade 54%Staqued 46%
The model gave 54% on Arcade — the map was taken by Staqued.
Cacheprediction correct13:7
Arcade 69%Staqued 31%
The model gave 69% on Arcade — the map was taken by Arcade.
Infernoprediction correct13:5
Arcade 67%Staqued 33%
The model gave 67% on Arcade — the map was taken by Arcade.
Model check result
Model favoriteArcade · 61%
Series resultArcade 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3