Urban Riga Open Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
ASTRAL#97 in the world · win 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NAVI Junior#127 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientASTRAL pick
63%40%
ASTRAL · 23 mapsedge ASTRAL +23%NAVI Junior · 1 map
MirageASTRAL ban
50%75%
ASTRAL · 12 mapsedge NAVI Junior +25%NAVI Junior · 4 maps
Dust2possible decider
53%40%
ASTRAL · 13 mapsedge ASTRAL +13%NAVI Junior · 1 map
InfernoNAVI Junior ban
40%33%
ASTRAL · 11 mapsedge ASTRAL +7%NAVI Junior · 2 maps
NukeASTRAL ban
33%33%
ASTRAL · 11 mapsnearly even +0%NAVI Junior · 2 maps
AnubisNAVI Junior ban
62%40%
ASTRAL · 9 mapsedge ASTRAL +22%NAVI Junior · 1 map
DefaultNAVI Junior pick
60%50%
ASTRAL · 1 mapedge ASTRAL +10%NAVI Junior · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanASTRAL remove Mirage
2. BanNAVI Junior remove Anubis
3. PickASTRAL take Ancient
4. PickNAVI Junior take Default
5. BanNAVI Junior remove Inferno
6. BanASTRAL remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (53% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:7
ASTRAL 74%NAVI Junior 26%
The model gave 74% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Nukeprediction missed19:15
ASTRAL 47%NAVI Junior 53%
The model gave 53% on NAVI Junior — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Model check result
Model favoriteASTRAL · 69%
Series resultASTRAL 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2