WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.pro#50 in the world · win 2:1series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
WW#123 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
47%50%
Virtus.pro · 13 mapsnearly even -3%WW · 6 maps
MirageWW pick
56%60%
Virtus.pro · 12 mapsnearly even -4%WW · 6 maps
OverpassVirtus.pro pick
64%40%
Virtus.pro · 10 mapsedge Virtus.pro +24%WW · 1 map
NukeWW ban
80%29%
Virtus.pro · 6 mapsedge Virtus.pro +51%WW · 3 maps
AncientWW ban
60%50%
Virtus.pro · 6 mapsedge Virtus.pro +10%WW · 0 maps
AnubisVirtus.pro ban
50%50%
Virtus.pro · 4 mapsnearly even +0%WW · 2 maps
InfernoVirtus.pro ban
50%50%
Virtus.pro · 0 mapsnearly even +0%WW · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVirtus.pro remove Inferno
2. BanWW remove Ancient
3. PickVirtus.pro take Overpass
4. PickWW take Mirage
5. BanWW remove Nuke
6. BanVirtus.pro remove Anubis
DeciderDust2 (47% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:3
Virtus.pro 44%WW 56%
The model gave 56% on WW — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Nukeprediction missed13:16
Virtus.pro 92%WW 8%
The model gave 92% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by WW.
Cacheprediction correct16:12
Virtus.pro 50%WW 50%
The model gave 50% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 70%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3