Urban Riga Open Season 6 · BO1
result vs prediction
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · loss 4:13series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 4:13
BRUTE#74 in the world · win 13:4The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
50%67%
MOUZ NXT · 8 mapsedge BRUTE +17%BRUTE · 14 maps
MirageMOUZ NXT ban
31%45%
MOUZ NXT · 9 mapsedge BRUTE +14%BRUTE · 7 maps
NukeBRUTE ban
56%54%
MOUZ NXT · 5 mapsnearly even +2%BRUTE · 9 maps
OverpassMOUZ NXT ban
29%70%
MOUZ NXT · 3 mapsedge BRUTE +41%BRUTE · 6 maps
InfernoMOUZ NXT ban
50%58%
MOUZ NXT · 0 mapsedge BRUTE +8%BRUTE · 8 maps
CacheBRUTE ban
67%25%
MOUZ NXT · 2 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +42%BRUTE · 4 maps
AncientBRUTE ban
57%50%
MOUZ NXT · 3 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +7%BRUTE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ NXT remove Inferno
2. BanBRUTE remove Ancient
3. BanMOUZ NXT remove Overpass
4. BanBRUTE remove Cache
5. BanMOUZ NXT remove Mirage
6. BanBRUTE remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (50% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct4:13
MOUZ NXT 35%BRUTE 65%
The model gave 65% on BRUTE — the map was taken by BRUTE.
Model check result
Model favoriteBRUTE · 54%
Series resultBRUTE 4:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1