Urban Riga Open Season 6 · BO1
result vs prediction
NAVI Junior#127 in the world · win 13:5series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 13:5
LEO SEloss 5:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
67%50%
NAVI Junior · 2 mapsedge NAVI Junior +17%LEO SE · 2 maps
InfernoNAVI Junior ban
33%40%
NAVI Junior · 2 mapsedge LEO SE +7%LEO SE · 1 map
NukeNAVI Junior ban
33%40%
NAVI Junior · 2 mapsedge LEO SE +7%LEO SE · 1 map
AncientNAVI Junior ban
40%40%
NAVI Junior · 1 mapnearly even +0%LEO SE · 1 map
AnubisLEO SE ban
40%40%
NAVI Junior · 1 mapnearly even +0%LEO SE · 1 map
Dust2LEO SE ban
40%50%
NAVI Junior · 1 mapedge LEO SE +10%LEO SE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNAVI Junior remove Inferno
2. BanLEO SE remove Anubis
3. BanNAVI Junior remove Nuke
4. BanLEO SE remove Dust2
5. BanNAVI Junior remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (67% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:5
NAVI Junior 67%LEO SE 33%
The model gave 67% on NAVI Junior — the map was taken by NAVI Junior.
Model check result
Model favoriteNAVI Junior · 53%
Series resultNAVI Junior 13:5
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1