Urban Riga Open Season 6 · BO1
result vs prediction
BRUTE#74 in the world · win 13:5series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 13:5
NAVI Junior#127 in the world · loss 5:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2NAVI Junior ban
65%50%
BRUTE · 13 mapsedge BRUTE +15%NAVI Junior · 0 maps
Nukepossible decider
54%33%
BRUTE · 9 mapsedge BRUTE +21%NAVI Junior · 2 maps
InfernoNAVI Junior ban
58%33%
BRUTE · 8 mapsedge BRUTE +25%NAVI Junior · 2 maps
MirageBRUTE ban
45%67%
BRUTE · 7 mapsedge NAVI Junior +22%NAVI Junior · 2 maps
OverpassNAVI Junior ban
70%50%
BRUTE · 6 mapsedge BRUTE +20%NAVI Junior · 0 maps
CacheBRUTE ban
25%50%
BRUTE · 4 mapsedge NAVI Junior +25%NAVI Junior · 0 maps
AnubisBRUTE ban
33%40%
BRUTE · 2 mapsedge NAVI Junior +7%NAVI Junior · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBRUTE remove Anubis
2. BanNAVI Junior remove Overpass
3. BanBRUTE remove Cache
4. BanNAVI Junior remove Inferno
5. BanBRUTE remove Mirage
6. BanNAVI Junior remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (54% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:5
BRUTE 65%NAVI Junior 35%
The model gave 65% on BRUTE — the map was taken by BRUTE.
Model check result
Model favoriteBRUTE · 60%
Series resultBRUTE 13:5
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1