WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
WW#123 in the world · win 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragebeznegativa ban
60%50%
WW · 6 mapsedge WW +10%beznegativa · 0 maps
Dust2WW pick
44%50%
WW · 5 mapsedge beznegativa +6%beznegativa · 0 maps
Nukebeznegativa pick
29%50%
WW · 3 mapsedge beznegativa +21%beznegativa · 0 maps
Anubisbeznegativa ban
50%50%
WW · 2 mapsnearly even +0%beznegativa · 0 maps
InfernoWW ban
50%50%
WW · 2 mapsnearly even +0%beznegativa · 0 maps
OverpassWW ban
40%50%
WW · 1 mapedge beznegativa +10%beznegativa · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWW remove Overpass
2. Banbeznegativa remove Mirage
3. PickWW take Dust2
4. Pickbeznegativa take Nuke
5. Banbeznegativa remove Anubis
6. BanWW remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:4
WW 47%beznegativa 53%
The model gave 53% on beznegativa — the map was taken by WW.
Dust2prediction missed13:3
WW 47%beznegativa 53%
The model gave 53% on beznegativa — the map was taken by WW.
Model check result
Model favoriteWW · 69%
Series resultWW 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2