Urban Riga Open Season 6 · BO1
result vs prediction
Noir Verse#124 in the world · loss 13:16series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 13:16
atputieswin 16:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Mirageatputies ban
56%29%
Noir Verse · 5 mapsedge Noir Verse +27%atputies · 3 maps
Nukeatputies ban
67%33%
Noir Verse · 5 mapsedge Noir Verse +34%atputies · 2 maps
AncientNoir Verse ban
38%50%
Noir Verse · 4 mapsedge atputies +12%atputies · 0 maps
Dust2Noir Verse ban
43%50%
Noir Verse · 3 mapsedge atputies +7%atputies · 0 maps
Anubisatputies ban
67%50%
Noir Verse · 2 mapsedge Noir Verse +17%atputies · 0 maps
Cachepossible decider
33%50%
Noir Verse · 2 mapsedge atputies +17%atputies · 0 maps
InfernoNoir Verse ban
40%50%
Noir Verse · 1 mapedge atputies +10%atputies · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNoir Verse remove Inferno
2. Banatputies remove Nuke
3. BanNoir Verse remove Ancient
4. Banatputies remove Mirage
5. BanNoir Verse remove Dust2
6. Banatputies remove Anubis
DeciderCache (33% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:16
Noir Verse 80%atputies 20%
The model gave 80% on Noir Verse — the map was taken by atputies.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoir Verse · 77%
Series resultatputies 13:16
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1