Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
UNiTY#102 in the world · win 2:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMai Tai pick
50%45%
UNiTY · 8 mapsedge UNiTY +5%Mai Tai · 7 maps
AncientUNiTY pick
38%43%
UNiTY · 9 mapsedge Mai Tai +5%Mai Tai · 3 maps
Dust2Mai Tai ban
43%50%
UNiTY · 10 mapsedge Mai Tai +7%Mai Tai · 2 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%45%
UNiTY · 1 mapedge UNiTY +15%Mai Tai · 7 maps
AnubisUNiTY ban
40%50%
UNiTY · 6 mapsedge Mai Tai +10%Mai Tai · 0 maps
CacheUNiTY ban
50%50%
UNiTY · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Mai Tai · 2 maps
InfernoMai Tai ban
50%50%
UNiTY · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Mai Tai · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanUNiTY remove Cache
2. BanMai Tai remove Inferno
3. PickUNiTY take Ancient
4. PickMai Tai take Mirage
5. BanMai Tai remove Dust2
6. BanUNiTY remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (60% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:10
UNiTY 52%Mai Tai 48%
The model gave 52% on UNiTY — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Ancientprediction missed13:7
UNiTY 48%Mai Tai 52%
The model gave 52% on Mai Tai — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Model check result
Model favoriteMai Tai · 56%
Series resultUNiTY 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2