Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bushido Wildcats#82 in the world · win 2:1series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Endless Journey#172 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Bushido Wildcats pick
72%75%
Bushido Wildcats · 21 mapnearly even -3%Endless Journey · 8 maps
MirageEndless Journey pick
73%57%
Bushido Wildcats · 11 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +16%Endless Journey · 10 maps
NukeBushido Wildcats ban
41%50%
Bushido Wildcats · 13 mapsedge Endless Journey +9%Endless Journey · 4 maps
AnubisEndless Journey ban
58%38%
Bushido Wildcats · 8 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +20%Endless Journey · 4 maps
InfernoEndless Journey ban
56%40%
Bushido Wildcats · 5 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +16%Endless Journey · 6 maps
Defaultpossible decider
71%50%
Bushido Wildcats · 3 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +21%Endless Journey · 4 maps
AncientBushido Wildcats ban
40%33%
Bushido Wildcats · 1 mapedge Bushido Wildcats +7%Endless Journey · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBushido Wildcats remove Ancient
2. BanEndless Journey remove Anubis
3. PickBushido Wildcats take Dust2
4. PickEndless Journey take Mirage
5. BanEndless Journey remove Inferno
6. BanBushido Wildcats remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (71% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
Bushido Wildcats 43%Endless Journey 57%
The model gave 57% on Endless Journey — the map was taken by Bushido Wildcats.
Mirageprediction missed8:13
Bushido Wildcats 70%Endless Journey 30%
The model gave 70% on Bushido Wildcats — the map was taken by Endless Journey.
Nukeprediction missed13:8
Bushido Wildcats 41%Endless Journey 59%
The model gave 59% on Endless Journey — the map was taken by Bushido Wildcats.
Model check result
Model favoriteBushido Wildcats · 66%
Series resultBushido Wildcats 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3