DFRAG Open Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rooster#196 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Mindfreak#213 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoRooster ban
50%58%
Rooster · 4 mapsedge Mindfreak +8%Mindfreak · 8 maps
Miragepossible decider
60%50%
Rooster · 6 mapsedge Rooster +10%Mindfreak · 4 maps
NukeRooster ban
38%40%
Rooster · 4 mapsnearly even -2%Mindfreak · 6 maps
AnubisRooster pick
67%43%
Rooster · 5 mapsedge Rooster +24%Mindfreak · 3 maps
Dust2Mindfreak ban
56%50%
Rooster · 5 mapsedge Rooster +6%Mindfreak · 0 maps
CacheMindfreak ban
60%50%
Rooster · 1 mapedge Rooster +10%Mindfreak · 0 maps
OverpassMindfreak pick
40%50%
Rooster · 1 mapedge Mindfreak +10%Mindfreak · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRooster remove Inferno
2. BanMindfreak remove Dust2
3. PickRooster take Anubis
4. PickMindfreak take Overpass
5. BanMindfreak remove Cache
6. BanRooster remove Nuke
DeciderMirage (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct9:13
Rooster 39%Mindfreak 61%
The model gave 61% on Mindfreak — the map was taken by Mindfreak.
Anubisprediction correct13:6
Rooster 75%Mindfreak 25%
The model gave 75% on Rooster — the map was taken by Rooster.
Mirageprediction missed10:13
Rooster 60%Mindfreak 40%
The model gave 60% on Rooster — the map was taken by Mindfreak.
Model check result
Model favoriteMindfreak · 66%
Series resultMindfreak 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3