BetBoom Storm Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
paiN Academy#286 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Keyd Stars#155 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageKeyd Stars pick
42%56%
paiN Academy · 15 mapsedge Keyd Stars +14%Keyd Stars · 12 maps
Dust2possible decider
44%50%
paiN Academy · 12 mapsedge Keyd Stars +6%Keyd Stars · 10 maps
NukepaiN Academy ban
38%31%
paiN Academy · 9 mapsedge paiN Academy +7%Keyd Stars · 9 maps
AncientpaiN Academy ban
40%50%
paiN Academy · 1 mapedge Keyd Stars +10%Keyd Stars · 16 maps
AnubispaiN Academy pick
58%50%
paiN Academy · 8 mapsedge paiN Academy +8%Keyd Stars · 4 maps
InfernoKeyd Stars ban
45%43%
paiN Academy · 7 mapsnearly even +2%Keyd Stars · 3 maps
CacheKeyd Stars ban
44%40%
paiN Academy · 5 mapsnearly even +4%Keyd Stars · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanpaiN Academy remove Ancient
2. BanKeyd Stars remove Inferno
3. PickpaiN Academy take Anubis
4. PickKeyd Stars take Mirage
5. BanKeyd Stars remove Cache
6. BanpaiN Academy remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (44% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed6:13
paiN Academy 61%Keyd Stars 39%
The model gave 61% on paiN Academy — the map was taken by Keyd Stars.
Mirageprediction missed13:3
paiN Academy 33%Keyd Stars 67%
The model gave 67% on Keyd Stars — the map was taken by paiN Academy.
Nukeprediction missed4:13
paiN Academy 58%Keyd Stars 42%
The model gave 58% on paiN Academy — the map was taken by Keyd Stars.
Model check result
Model favoriteKeyd Stars · 73%
Series resultKeyd Stars 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3