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BetBoom Storm Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
BORRACHEIROS#179 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MEIA NOITE#230 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBORRACHEIROS pick
56%40%
BORRACHEIROS · 5 mapsedge BORRACHEIROS +16%MEIA NOITE · 1 map
Dust2MEIA NOITE ban
71%67%
BORRACHEIROS · 3 mapsnearly even +4%MEIA NOITE · 2 maps
MirageMEIA NOITE pick
43%50%
BORRACHEIROS · 3 mapsedge MEIA NOITE +7%MEIA NOITE · 2 maps
Defaultpossible decider
71%60%
BORRACHEIROS · 3 mapsedge BORRACHEIROS +11%MEIA NOITE · 1 map
InfernoBORRACHEIROS ban
29%60%
BORRACHEIROS · 3 mapsedge MEIA NOITE +31%MEIA NOITE · 1 map
NukeBORRACHEIROS ban
33%40%
BORRACHEIROS · 2 mapsedge MEIA NOITE +7%MEIA NOITE · 1 map
AnubisMEIA NOITE ban
50%50%
BORRACHEIROS · 2 mapsnearly even +0%MEIA NOITE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBORRACHEIROS remove Inferno
2. BanMEIA NOITE remove Anubis
3. PickBORRACHEIROS take Ancient
4. PickMEIA NOITE take Mirage
5. BanMEIA NOITE remove Dust2
6. BanBORRACHEIROS remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (71% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct16:13
BORRACHEIROS 68%MEIA NOITE 32%
The model gave 68% on BORRACHEIROS — the map was taken by BORRACHEIROS.
Infernoprediction correct10:13
BORRACHEIROS 19%MEIA NOITE 81%
The model gave 81% on MEIA NOITE — the map was taken by MEIA NOITE.
Mirageprediction missed13:4
BORRACHEIROS 43%MEIA NOITE 57%
The model gave 57% on MEIA NOITE — the map was taken by BORRACHEIROS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBORRACHEIROS · 57%
Series resultBORRACHEIROS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3