DFRAG Open Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ground Zero#139 in the world · win 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Mindfreak#213 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeGround Zero pick
67%44%
Ground Zero · 11 mapsedge Ground Zero +23%Mindfreak · 5 maps
Dust2Mindfreak ban
47%50%
Ground Zero · 13 mapsnearly even -3%Mindfreak · 0 maps
InfernoGround Zero ban
38%58%
Ground Zero · 4 mapsedge Mindfreak +20%Mindfreak · 8 maps
MirageMindfreak ban
50%50%
Ground Zero · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Mindfreak · 4 maps
AnubisMindfreak pick
45%50%
Ground Zero · 7 mapsedge Mindfreak +5%Mindfreak · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGround Zero remove Inferno
2. BanMindfreak remove Dust2
3. PickGround Zero take Nuke
4. PickMindfreak take Anubis
5. BanMindfreak remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:10
Ground Zero 69%Mindfreak 31%
The model gave 69% on Ground Zero — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Anubisprediction missed13:4
Ground Zero 48%Mindfreak 52%
The model gave 52% on Mindfreak — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Model check result
Model favoriteGround Zero · 67%
Series resultGround Zero 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2