BetBoom Storm Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
METANOIA Wolves#210 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2MEIA NOITE pick
50%60%
METANOIA Wolves · 14 mapsedge MEIA NOITE +10%MEIA NOITE · 1 map
AncientMETANOIA Wolves pick
58%40%
METANOIA Wolves · 8 mapsedge METANOIA Wolves +18%MEIA NOITE · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
40%60%
METANOIA Wolves · 6 mapsedge MEIA NOITE +20%MEIA NOITE · 1 map
InfernoMETANOIA Wolves ban
33%60%
METANOIA Wolves · 5 mapsedge MEIA NOITE +27%MEIA NOITE · 1 map
MirageMETANOIA Wolves ban
22%40%
METANOIA Wolves · 5 mapsedge MEIA NOITE +18%MEIA NOITE · 1 map
NukeMEIA NOITE ban
44%40%
METANOIA Wolves · 5 mapsnearly even +4%MEIA NOITE · 1 map
CacheMEIA NOITE ban
33%40%
METANOIA Wolves · 2 mapsedge MEIA NOITE +7%MEIA NOITE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMETANOIA Wolves remove Mirage
2. BanMEIA NOITE remove Cache
3. PickMETANOIA Wolves take Ancient
4. PickMEIA NOITE take Dust2
5. BanMEIA NOITE remove Nuke
6. BanMETANOIA Wolves remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (40% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct6:13
METANOIA Wolves 28%MEIA NOITE 72%
The model gave 72% on MEIA NOITE — the map was taken by MEIA NOITE.
Dust2prediction correct11:13
METANOIA Wolves 43%MEIA NOITE 57%
The model gave 57% on MEIA NOITE — the map was taken by MEIA NOITE.
Model check result
Model favoriteMETANOIA Wolves · 54%
Series resultMEIA NOITE 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2