Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#41 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 1:2
JiJieHao#47 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientJiJieHao pick
65%69%
HOTU · 13 mapsnearly even -4%JiJieHao · 12 maps
Dust2HOTU pick
65%30%
HOTU · 19 mapsedge HOTU +35%JiJieHao · 6 maps
Cachepossible decider
57%43%
HOTU · 10 mapsedge HOTU +14%JiJieHao · 3 maps
MirageHOTU ban
50%70%
HOTU · 6 mapsedge JiJieHao +20%JiJieHao · 6 maps
NukeJiJieHao ban
73%40%
HOTU · 11 mapsedge HOTU +33%JiJieHao · 1 map
AnubisJiJieHao ban
73%50%
HOTU · 7 mapsedge HOTU +23%JiJieHao · 4 maps
InfernoHOTU ban
50%64%
HOTU · 0 mapsedge JiJieHao +14%JiJieHao · 10 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Inferno
2. BanJiJieHao remove Nuke
3. PickHOTU take Dust2
4. PickJiJieHao take Ancient
5. BanJiJieHao remove Anubis
6. BanHOTU remove Mirage
DeciderCache (57% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:7
HOTU 28%JiJieHao 72%
The model gave 72% on JiJieHao — the map was taken by HOTU.
Cacheprediction missed9:13
HOTU 67%JiJieHao 33%
The model gave 67% on HOTU — the map was taken by JiJieHao.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
HOTU 81%JiJieHao 19%
The model gave 81% on HOTU — the map was taken by JiJieHao.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 81%
Series resultJiJieHao 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3