WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
CYBERSHOKE#90 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
ARCRED#121 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ARCRED pick
57%75%
CYBERSHOKE · 19 mapsedge ARCRED +18%ARCRED · 4 maps
AncientCYBERSHOKE pick
63%33%
CYBERSHOKE · 15 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +30%ARCRED · 5 maps
MirageCYBERSHOKE ban
53%44%
CYBERSHOKE · 13 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +9%ARCRED · 5 maps
AnubisCYBERSHOKE ban
43%70%
CYBERSHOKE · 3 mapsedge ARCRED +27%ARCRED · 6 maps
OverpassARCRED ban
50%50%
CYBERSHOKE · 8 mapsnearly even +0%ARCRED · 0 maps
NukeARCRED ban
44%50%
CYBERSHOKE · 5 mapsedge ARCRED +6%ARCRED · 2 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%50%
CYBERSHOKE · 1 mapedge CYBERSHOKE +10%ARCRED · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Anubis
2. BanARCRED remove Nuke
3. PickCYBERSHOKE take Ancient
4. PickARCRED take Dust2
5. BanARCRED remove Overpass
6. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:6
CYBERSHOKE 47%ARCRED 53%
The model gave 53% on ARCRED — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Anubisprediction correct9:13
CYBERSHOKE 22%ARCRED 78%
The model gave 78% on ARCRED — the map was taken by ARCRED.
Dust2prediction correct3:13
CYBERSHOKE 30%ARCRED 70%
The model gave 70% on ARCRED — the map was taken by ARCRED.
Model check result
Model favoriteARCRED · 59%
Series resultARCRED 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3