Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Entropy#159 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Mirageex-RUSTEC pick
63%46%
ex-RUSTEC · 4 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +17%Entropy · 22 maps
Dust2Entropy ban
60%29%
ex-RUSTEC · 6 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +31%Entropy · 10 maps
Ancientex-RUSTEC ban
50%50%
ex-RUSTEC · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Entropy · 14 maps
Anubisex-RUSTEC ban
40%53%
ex-RUSTEC · 1 mapedge Entropy +13%Entropy · 11 maps
CacheEntropy pick
50%57%
ex-RUSTEC · 0 mapsedge Entropy +7%Entropy · 10 maps
InfernoEntropy ban
40%44%
ex-RUSTEC · 1 mapnearly even -4%Entropy · 5 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%50%
ex-RUSTEC · 1 mapedge ex-RUSTEC +10%Entropy · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-RUSTEC remove Ancient
2. BanEntropy remove Dust2
3. Pickex-RUSTEC take Mirage
4. PickEntropy take Cache
5. BanEntropy remove Inferno
6. Banex-RUSTEC remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:3
ex-RUSTEC 40%Entropy 60%
The model gave 60% on Entropy — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
ex-RUSTEC 81%Entropy 19%
The model gave 81% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntropy · 52%
Series resultex-RUSTEC 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2