BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard#46 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The MongolZ#16 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Wildcard ban
54%60%
Wildcard · 9 mapsedge The MongolZ +6%The MongolZ · 6 maps
InfernoThe MongolZ pick
50%67%
Wildcard · 6 mapsedge The MongolZ +17%The MongolZ · 5 maps
MirageWildcard pick
63%36%
Wildcard · 4 mapsedge Wildcard +27%The MongolZ · 7 maps
Nukepossible decider
63%50%
Wildcard · 4 mapsedge Wildcard +13%The MongolZ · 4 maps
AncientWildcard ban
50%33%
Wildcard · 0 mapsedge Wildcard +17%The MongolZ · 5 maps
OverpassThe MongolZ ban
50%43%
Wildcard · 2 mapsedge Wildcard +7%The MongolZ · 3 maps
DefaultThe MongolZ ban
75%50%
Wildcard · 4 mapsedge Wildcard +25%The MongolZ · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWildcard remove Ancient
2. BanThe MongolZ remove Default
3. PickWildcard take Mirage
4. PickThe MongolZ take Inferno
5. BanThe MongolZ remove Overpass
6. BanWildcard remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (63% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct7:13
Wildcard 47%The MongolZ 53%
The model gave 53% on The MongolZ — the map was taken by The MongolZ.
Infernoprediction correct9:13
Wildcard 31%The MongolZ 69%
The model gave 69% on The MongolZ — the map was taken by The MongolZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe MongolZ · 81%
Series resultThe MongolZ 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2