CCT 2026 Challengers Europe Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fortress#236 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-MANA pick
50%48%
Fortress · 2 mapsnearly even +2%ex-MANA · 21 map
AncientFortress pick
50%44%
Fortress · 6 mapsedge Fortress +6%ex-MANA · 12 maps
MirageFortress ban
25%56%
Fortress · 4 mapsedge ex-MANA +31%ex-MANA · 14 maps
Infernopossible decider
36%33%
Fortress · 7 mapsnearly even +3%ex-MANA · 5 maps
Nukeex-MANA ban
33%30%
Fortress · 5 mapsnearly even +3%ex-MANA · 6 maps
AnubisFortress ban
50%45%
Fortress · 2 mapsedge Fortress +5%ex-MANA · 7 maps
Cacheex-MANA ban
22%43%
Fortress · 5 mapsedge ex-MANA +21%ex-MANA · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFortress remove Mirage
2. Banex-MANA remove Nuke
3. PickFortress take Ancient
4. Pickex-MANA take Dust2
5. Banex-MANA remove Cache
6. BanFortress remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (36% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed3:13
Fortress 59%ex-MANA 41%
The model gave 59% on Fortress — the map was taken by ex-MANA.
Mirageprediction correct4:13
Fortress 19%ex-MANA 81%
The model gave 81% on ex-MANA — the map was taken by ex-MANA.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-MANA · 61%
Series resultex-MANA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2