Esports World Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
FURIA#4 in the world · win 2:1series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Aurora#6 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeFURIA ban
71%67%
FURIA · 3 mapsnearly even +4%Aurora · 8 maps
AnubisFURIA ban
33%67%
FURIA · 2 mapsedge Aurora +34%Aurora · 8 maps
Dust2Aurora ban
63%50%
FURIA · 4 mapsedge FURIA +13%Aurora · 6 maps
MirageFURIA pick
56%63%
FURIA · 5 mapsedge Aurora +7%Aurora · 4 maps
InfernoAurora pick
50%67%
FURIA · 4 mapsedge Aurora +17%Aurora · 2 maps
CacheAurora ban
40%43%
FURIA · 1 mapnearly even -3%Aurora · 3 maps
Overpasspossible decider
71%60%
FURIA · 3 mapsedge FURIA +11%Aurora · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFURIA remove Anubis
2. BanAurora remove Cache
3. PickFURIA take Mirage
4. PickAurora take Inferno
5. BanAurora remove Dust2
6. BanFURIA remove Nuke
DeciderOverpass (71% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:11
FURIA 47%Aurora 53%
The model gave 53% on Aurora — the map was taken by FURIA.
Nukeprediction missed14:16
FURIA 58%Aurora 42%
The model gave 58% on FURIA — the map was taken by Aurora.
Mirageprediction missed13:9
FURIA 43%Aurora 57%
The model gave 57% on Aurora — the map was taken by FURIA.
Model check result
Model favoriteFURIA · 75%
Series resultFURIA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3