PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 Europe Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Ninjas in Pyjamas#26 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Inner Circle#22 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientInner Circle ban
53%60%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 11 mapsedge Inner Circle +7%Inner Circle · 11 maps
NukeNinjas in Pyjamas pick
67%64%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 14 mapsnearly even +3%Inner Circle · 7 maps
Miragepossible decider
46%46%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 9 mapsnearly even +0%Inner Circle · 9 maps
AnubisNinjas in Pyjamas ban
44%50%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 5 mapsedge Inner Circle +6%Inner Circle · 6 maps
Dust2Ninjas in Pyjamas ban
50%77%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 2 mapsedge Inner Circle +27%Inner Circle · 9 maps
CacheInner Circle pick
20%67%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 6 mapsedge Inner Circle +47%Inner Circle · 2 maps
InfernoInner Circle ban
55%50%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 7 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +5%Inner Circle · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Dust2
2. BanInner Circle remove Inferno
3. PickNinjas in Pyjamas take Nuke
4. PickInner Circle take Cache
5. BanInner Circle remove Ancient
6. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (46% / 46%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:9
Ninjas in Pyjamas 56%Inner Circle 44%
The model gave 56% on Ninjas in Pyjamas — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Dust2prediction correct11:13
Ninjas in Pyjamas 21%Inner Circle 79%
The model gave 79% on Inner Circle — the map was taken by Inner Circle.
Mirageprediction missed0:13
Ninjas in Pyjamas 50%Inner Circle 50%
The model gave 50% on Ninjas in Pyjamas — the map was taken by Inner Circle.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 54%
Series resultInner Circle 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3