Stake Pulse Beat I · BO3
result vs prediction
9INE#80 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BRUTE#74 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BRUTE pick
43%70%
9INE · 3 mapsedge BRUTE +27%BRUTE · 16 maps
Nuke9INE pick
57%56%
9INE · 3 mapsnearly even +1%BRUTE · 12 maps
Inferno9INE ban
60%64%
9INE · 1 mapnearly even -4%BRUTE · 7 maps
Mirage9INE ban
50%50%
9INE · 0 mapsnearly even +0%BRUTE · 8 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%70%
9INE · 0 mapsedge BRUTE +20%BRUTE · 6 maps
CacheBRUTE ban
50%25%
9INE · 0 mapsedge 9INE +25%BRUTE · 4 maps
AncientBRUTE ban
43%50%
9INE · 3 mapsedge BRUTE +7%BRUTE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban9INE remove Mirage
2. BanBRUTE remove Ancient
3. Pick9INE take Nuke
4. PickBRUTE take Dust2
5. BanBRUTE remove Cache
6. Ban9INE remove Inferno
DeciderOverpass (50% / 70%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct10:13
9INE 22%BRUTE 78%
The model gave 78% on BRUTE — the map was taken by BRUTE.
Cacheprediction missed9:13
9INE 77%BRUTE 23%
The model gave 77% on 9INE — the map was taken by BRUTE.
Model check result
Model favorite9INE · 64%
Series resultBRUTE 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2