Stake Ranked Episode 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
9z#17 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
FaZe#14 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
56%40%
9z · 5 mapsedge 9z +16%FaZe · 6 maps
AncientFaZe ban
63%38%
9z · 4 mapsedge 9z +25%FaZe · 4 maps
NukeFaZe pick
63%63%
9z · 4 mapsnearly even +0%FaZe · 4 maps
Mirage9z ban
43%57%
9z · 3 mapsedge FaZe +14%FaZe · 3 maps
Anubis9z ban
40%43%
9z · 1 mapnearly even -3%FaZe · 3 maps
InfernoFaZe ban
50%50%
9z · 4 mapsnearly even +0%FaZe · 0 maps
Overpass9z pick
57%40%
9z · 3 mapsedge 9z +17%FaZe · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban9z remove Anubis
2. BanFaZe remove Inferno
3. Pick9z take Overpass
4. PickFaZe take Nuke
5. BanFaZe remove Ancient
6. Ban9z remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (56% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct15:19
9z 33%FaZe 67%
The model gave 67% on FaZe — the map was taken by FaZe.
Overpassprediction correct19:16
9z 69%FaZe 31%
The model gave 69% on 9z — the map was taken by 9z.
Ancientprediction missed9:13
9z 74%FaZe 26%
The model gave 74% on 9z — the map was taken by FaZe.
Model check result
Model favoriteFaZe · 56%
Series resultFaZe 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3