PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
9z#17 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:2
magic#18 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Mirage9z ban
33%73%
9z · 2 mapsedge magic +40%magic · 7 maps
Dust2magic ban
57%43%
9z · 3 mapsedge 9z +14%magic · 3 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%63%
9z · 2 mapsedge magic +13%magic · 4 maps
Ancient9z pick
71%40%
9z · 3 mapsedge 9z +31%magic · 1 map
Nukemagic ban
71%50%
9z · 3 mapsedge 9z +21%magic · 0 maps
Overpassmagic pick
60%67%
9z · 1 mapedge magic +7%magic · 2 maps
Anubis9z ban
40%50%
9z · 1 mapedge magic +10%magic · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban9z remove Mirage
2. Banmagic remove Nuke
3. Pick9z take Ancient
4. Pickmagic take Overpass
5. Banmagic remove Dust2
6. Ban9z remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (50% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed9:13
9z 67%magic 33%
The model gave 67% on 9z — the map was taken by magic.
Mirageprediction missed13:2
9z 14%magic 86%
The model gave 86% on magic — the map was taken by 9z.
Ancientprediction missed11:13
9z 79%magic 21%
The model gave 79% on 9z — the map was taken by magic.
Model check result
Model favorite9z · 70%
Series resultmagic 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3