Stake Ranked Episode 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
9z#17 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Sharks#51 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientSharks pick
63%71%
9z · 4 mapsedge Sharks +8%Sharks · 3 maps
Nuke9z pick
71%63%
9z · 3 mapsedge 9z +8%Sharks · 4 maps
Dust2Sharks ban
50%50%
9z · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Sharks · 0 maps
Mirage9z ban
43%40%
9z · 3 mapsnearly even +3%Sharks · 1 map
InfernoSharks ban
50%60%
9z · 2 mapsedge Sharks +10%Sharks · 1 map
Overpasspossible decider
60%40%
9z · 1 mapedge 9z +20%Sharks · 1 map
Anubis9z ban
40%50%
9z · 1 mapedge Sharks +10%Sharks · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban9z remove Anubis
2. BanSharks remove Dust2
3. Pick9z take Nuke
4. PickSharks take Ancient
5. BanSharks remove Inferno
6. Ban9z remove Mirage
DeciderOverpass (60% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct11:13
9z 37%Sharks 63%
The model gave 63% on Sharks — the map was taken by Sharks.
Overpassprediction correct16:13
9z 72%Sharks 28%
The model gave 72% on 9z — the map was taken by 9z.
Nukeprediction missed11:13
9z 60%Sharks 40%
The model gave 60% on 9z — the map was taken by Sharks.
Model check result
Model favorite9z · 69%
Series resultSharks 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3