ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
A Great Chaos#206 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
WBT Academy#120 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisWBT Academy ban
60%33%
A Great Chaos · 1 mapedge A Great Chaos +27%WBT Academy · 2 maps
MirageA Great Chaos pick
50%60%
A Great Chaos · 2 mapsedge WBT Academy +10%WBT Academy · 1 map
NukeA Great Chaos ban
40%33%
A Great Chaos · 1 mapedge A Great Chaos +7%WBT Academy · 2 maps
AncientWBT Academy ban
50%40%
A Great Chaos · 0 mapsedge A Great Chaos +10%WBT Academy · 1 map
Dust2WBT Academy pick
50%60%
A Great Chaos · 0 mapsedge WBT Academy +10%WBT Academy · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanA Great Chaos remove Nuke
2. BanWBT Academy remove Anubis
3. PickA Great Chaos take Mirage
4. PickWBT Academy take Dust2
5. BanWBT Academy remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
A Great Chaos 43%WBT Academy 57%
The model gave 57% on WBT Academy — the map was taken by WBT Academy.
Anubisprediction missed8:13
A Great Chaos 73%WBT Academy 27%
The model gave 73% on A Great Chaos — the map was taken by WBT Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteWBT Academy · 66%
Series resultWBT Academy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2