European Pro League Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
AaB#69 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BIG Academy#147 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBIG Academy ban
71%50%
AaB · 3 mapsedge AaB +21%BIG Academy · 2 maps
AnubisBIG Academy pick
50%50%
AaB · 2 mapsnearly even +0%BIG Academy · 0 maps
Dust2AaB ban
50%50%
AaB · 0 mapsnearly even +0%BIG Academy · 2 maps
OverpassAaB pick
50%50%
AaB · 2 mapsnearly even +0%BIG Academy · 0 maps
InfernoBIG Academy ban
50%60%
AaB · 0 mapsedge BIG Academy +10%BIG Academy · 1 map
Miragepossible decider
50%60%
AaB · 0 mapsedge BIG Academy +10%BIG Academy · 1 map
NukeAaB ban
40%50%
AaB · 1 mapedge BIG Academy +10%BIG Academy · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAaB remove Nuke
2. BanBIG Academy remove Ancient
3. PickAaB take Overpass
4. PickBIG Academy take Anubis
5. BanBIG Academy remove Inferno
6. BanAaB remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction missed9:13
AaB 53%BIG Academy 47%
The model gave 53% on AaB — the map was taken by BIG Academy.
Ancientprediction missed10:13
AaB 69%BIG Academy 31%
The model gave 69% on AaB — the map was taken by BIG Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteAaB · 67%
Series resultBIG Academy 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2