BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
AaB#69 in the world · win 2:1series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
GenOne#95 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
50%56%
AaB · 6 mapsedge GenOne +6%GenOne · 5 maps
Dust2AaB ban
50%64%
AaB · 0 mapsedge GenOne +14%GenOne · 7 maps
NukeAaB ban
43%50%
AaB · 3 mapsedge GenOne +7%GenOne · 4 maps
OverpassAaB pick
56%50%
AaB · 5 mapsedge AaB +6%GenOne · 2 maps
AnubisGenOne ban
50%50%
AaB · 2 mapsnearly even +0%GenOne · 0 maps
InfernoGenOne pick
50%67%
AaB · 0 mapsedge GenOne +17%GenOne · 2 maps
DefaultGenOne ban
50%40%
AaB · 0 mapsedge AaB +10%GenOne · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAaB remove Dust2
2. BanGenOne remove Anubis
3. PickAaB take Overpass
4. PickGenOne take Inferno
5. BanGenOne remove Default
6. BanAaB remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (50% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:16
AaB 40%GenOne 60%
The model gave 60% on GenOne — the map was taken by GenOne.
Overpassprediction correct13:6
AaB 58%GenOne 42%
The model gave 58% on AaB — the map was taken by AaB.
Ancientprediction missed13:6
AaB 44%GenOne 56%
The model gave 56% on GenOne — the map was taken by AaB.
Model check result
Model favoriteAaB · 65%
Series resultAaB 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3