ESEA Season 58 Oceania Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
Abyssal#165 in the world · win 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
5dads#186 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAbyssal pick
77%50%
Abyssal · 9 mapsedge Abyssal +27%5dads · 2 maps
Dust25dads pick
70%63%
Abyssal · 6 mapsedge Abyssal +7%5dads · 4 maps
InfernoAbyssal ban
36%50%
Abyssal · 7 mapsedge 5dads +14%5dads · 0 maps
Nuke5dads ban
33%50%
Abyssal · 5 mapsedge 5dads +17%5dads · 0 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%67%
Abyssal · 2 mapsedge 5dads +17%5dads · 2 maps
Cache5dads ban
60%33%
Abyssal · 1 mapedge Abyssal +27%5dads · 2 maps
AnubisAbyssal ban
40%50%
Abyssal · 1 mapedge 5dads +10%5dads · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAbyssal remove Anubis
2. Ban5dads remove Nuke
3. PickAbyssal take Mirage
4. Pick5dads take Dust2
5. Ban5dads remove Cache
6. BanAbyssal remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (50% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:6
Abyssal 31%5dads 69%
The model gave 69% on 5dads — the map was taken by Abyssal.
Mirageprediction correct16:12
Abyssal 79%5dads 21%
The model gave 79% on Abyssal — the map was taken by Abyssal.
Model check result
Model favoriteAbyssal · 63%
Series resultAbyssal 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2