DFRAG Open Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Abyssal#165 in the world · win 2:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Arcade#198 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAbyssal pick
44%57%
Abyssal · 5 mapsedge Arcade +13%Arcade · 3 maps
NukeArcade pick
38%43%
Abyssal · 4 mapsedge Arcade +5%Arcade · 3 maps
InfernoArcade ban
50%60%
Abyssal · 4 mapsedge Arcade +10%Arcade · 1 map
Dust2Abyssal ban
40%43%
Abyssal · 1 mapnearly even -3%Arcade · 3 maps
CacheAbyssal ban
60%50%
Abyssal · 1 mapedge Abyssal +10%Arcade · 2 maps
OverpassArcade ban
50%50%
Abyssal · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Arcade · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAbyssal remove Dust2
2. BanArcade remove Overpass
3. PickAbyssal take Mirage
4. PickArcade take Nuke
5. BanArcade remove Inferno
6. BanAbyssal remove Cache
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:6
Abyssal 40%Arcade 60%
The model gave 60% on Arcade — the map was taken by Abyssal.
Infernoprediction missed16:14
Abyssal 37%Arcade 63%
The model gave 63% on Arcade — the map was taken by Abyssal.
Model check result
Model favoriteArcade · 56%
Series resultAbyssal 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2