ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Abyssal#165 in the world · win 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Mirageex-Arcade ban
75%50%
Abyssal · 8 mapsedge Abyssal +25%ex-Arcade · 0 maps
Dust2Abyssal pick
67%50%
Abyssal · 5 mapsedge Abyssal +17%ex-Arcade · 0 maps
Infernoex-Arcade pick
33%50%
Abyssal · 5 mapsedge ex-Arcade +17%ex-Arcade · 0 maps
NukeAbyssal ban
38%50%
Abyssal · 4 mapsedge ex-Arcade +12%ex-Arcade · 0 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%50%
Abyssal · 2 mapsnearly even +0%ex-Arcade · 0 maps
AnubisAbyssal ban
40%50%
Abyssal · 1 mapedge ex-Arcade +10%ex-Arcade · 0 maps
Cacheex-Arcade ban
60%50%
Abyssal · 1 mapedge Abyssal +10%ex-Arcade · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAbyssal remove Anubis
2. Banex-Arcade remove Mirage
3. PickAbyssal take Dust2
4. Pickex-Arcade take Inferno
5. Banex-Arcade remove Cache
6. BanAbyssal remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
Abyssal 73%ex-Arcade 27%
The model gave 73% on Abyssal — the map was taken by Abyssal.
Infernoprediction missed19:15
Abyssal 36%ex-Arcade 64%
The model gave 64% on ex-Arcade — the map was taken by Abyssal.
Model check result
Model favoriteAbyssal · 56%
Series resultAbyssal 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2