ESEA Intermediate Season 58 Oceania · BO3
result vs prediction
Abyssal#157 in the world · win 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
madlikewizardsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAbyssal pick
64%50%
Abyssal · 7 mapsedge Abyssal +14%madlikewizards · 0 maps
InfernoAbyssal ban
44%60%
Abyssal · 5 mapsedge madlikewizards +16%madlikewizards · 1 map
Nukemadlikewizards pick
43%60%
Abyssal · 3 mapsedge madlikewizards +17%madlikewizards · 1 map
Dust2possible decider
57%50%
Abyssal · 3 mapsedge Abyssal +7%madlikewizards · 0 maps
Ancientmadlikewizards ban
50%50%
Abyssal · 2 mapsnearly even +0%madlikewizards · 0 maps
Cachemadlikewizards ban
60%40%
Abyssal · 1 mapedge Abyssal +20%madlikewizards · 1 map
AnubisAbyssal ban
40%50%
Abyssal · 1 mapedge madlikewizards +10%madlikewizards · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAbyssal remove Anubis
2. Banmadlikewizards remove Ancient
3. PickAbyssal take Mirage
4. Pickmadlikewizards take Nuke
5. Banmadlikewizards remove Cache
6. BanAbyssal remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (57% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
Abyssal 54%madlikewizards 46%
The model gave 54% on Abyssal — the map was taken by Abyssal.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
Abyssal 66%madlikewizards 34%
The model gave 66% on Abyssal — the map was taken by Abyssal.
Model check result
Model favoriteAbyssal · 61%
Series resultAbyssal 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2