DFRAG Open Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Abyssal#165 in the world · win 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoMGLBROS pick
43%50%
Abyssal · 3 mapsedge MGLBROS +7%MGLBROS · 0 maps
MirageMGLBROS ban
71%50%
Abyssal · 3 mapsedge Abyssal +21%MGLBROS · 0 maps
NukeAbyssal ban
50%50%
Abyssal · 2 mapsnearly even +0%MGLBROS · 0 maps
AnubisAbyssal ban
40%50%
Abyssal · 1 mapedge MGLBROS +10%MGLBROS · 0 maps
DefaultMGLBROS ban
60%50%
Abyssal · 1 mapedge Abyssal +10%MGLBROS · 0 maps
OverpassAbyssal pick
60%50%
Abyssal · 1 mapedge Abyssal +10%MGLBROS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAbyssal remove Anubis
2. BanMGLBROS remove Mirage
3. PickAbyssal take Overpass
4. PickMGLBROS take Inferno
5. BanMGLBROS remove Default
6. BanAbyssal remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:2
Abyssal 40%MGLBROS 60%
The model gave 60% on MGLBROS — the map was taken by Abyssal.
Nukeprediction correct13:9
Abyssal 53%MGLBROS 47%
The model gave 53% on Abyssal — the map was taken by Abyssal.
Model check result
Model favoriteAbyssal · 58%
Series resultAbyssal 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2