DFRAG Invitational 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Abyssal#129 in the world · win 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Rooster#167 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
44%47%
Abyssal · 14 mapsnearly even -3%Rooster · 11 maps
MirageAbyssal pick
71%58%
Abyssal · 10 mapsedge Abyssal +13%Rooster · 8 maps
Dust2Rooster ban
60%38%
Abyssal · 11 mapsedge Abyssal +22%Rooster · 4 maps
NukeAbyssal ban
42%45%
Abyssal · 8 mapsnearly even -3%Rooster · 7 maps
AnubisAbyssal ban
40%53%
Abyssal · 1 mapedge Rooster +13%Rooster · 11 maps
CacheRooster pick
63%73%
Abyssal · 4 mapsedge Rooster +10%Rooster · 7 maps
AncientRooster ban
60%50%
Abyssal · 6 mapsedge Abyssal +10%Rooster · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAbyssal remove Anubis
2. BanRooster remove Ancient
3. PickAbyssal take Mirage
4. PickRooster take Cache
5. BanRooster remove Dust2
6. BanAbyssal remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (44% / 47%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct16:12
Abyssal 51%Rooster 49%
The model gave 51% on Abyssal — the map was taken by Abyssal.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
Abyssal 61%Rooster 39%
The model gave 61% on Abyssal — the map was taken by Abyssal.
Model check result
Model favoriteRooster · 55%
Series resultAbyssal 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2