NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
Acend#125 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BET-M#62 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoAcend pick
67%65%
Acend · 11 mapsnearly even +2%BET-M · 13 maps
AncientBET-M ban
55%33%
Acend · 7 mapsedge Acend +22%BET-M · 14 maps
Dust2possible decider
42%41%
Acend · 8 mapsnearly even +1%BET-M · 13 maps
MirageBET-M pick
45%56%
Acend · 7 mapsedge BET-M +11%BET-M · 12 maps
NukeAcend ban
50%53%
Acend · 0 mapsnearly even -3%BET-M · 15 maps
AnubisAcend ban
38%55%
Acend · 4 mapsedge BET-M +17%BET-M · 7 maps
CacheBET-M ban
33%50%
Acend · 5 mapsedge BET-M +17%BET-M · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAcend remove Nuke
2. BanBET-M remove Cache
3. PickAcend take Inferno
4. PickBET-M take Mirage
5. BanBET-M remove Ancient
6. BanAcend remove Anubis
DeciderDust2 (42% / 41%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct9:13
Acend 48%BET-M 52%
The model gave 52% on BET-M — the map was taken by BET-M.
Infernoprediction missed8:13
Acend 55%BET-M 45%
The model gave 55% on Acend — the map was taken by BET-M.
Model check result
Model favoriteAcend · 62%
Series resultBET-M 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2